Political violence and civil unrest trends 2026

The world is experiencing one of the most volatile geopolitical periods in our history since the end of World War Two. Even before the current conflict in the Middle East, the risks posed by political violence and civil unrest had been intensifying, evolving into global challenges that impact companies, communities, and the wider economy.

According to the 2026 Allianz Risk Barometer, war has overtaken civil unrest as the political violence exposure companies fear the most, as conflicts in Europe and the Middle East disrupt global trade flows, strain political alliances, embolden adversarial powers, and heighten risks to business assets.

The latest edition of this annual report provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolving political violence and terrorism threat landscape, offering insights from Allianz Commercial in-house experts into the trends shaping our world today. As businesses navigate this era of heightened uncertainty, understanding the implications of these risks and mitigating them with interconnected ecosystems has never been more critical.

The repercussions of the US / Iran conflict on the political violence and terrorism (PVT) risk landscape are significant. Notwithstanding the human toll of the conflict, the PVT insurance market in the Middle East has been severely impacted, with losses concentrated in key sectors like oil, gas, and transportation. Damaged infrastructure could take years to repair. The region's risk assessment has shifted to medium-to-high, with some industries now considered high to extreme. The loss quantum has the potential to result in a costlier event than PVT claims resulting from the war in Ukraine.

Heightened risk of strikes, riots, and civil unrest is to be expected, particularly in countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, gas and fertilizers. 

Businesses impacted by armed conflict face significant challenges, including supply chain disruptions, loss of market access, cyber-attacks, and sabotage.

Meanwhile, in the ‘gray zone’ between peace and open warfare, threat actors are leveraging technology, criminal networks, and disinformation to attack critical infrastructure, businesses, and individuals, blurring the lines between state and non-state actors while undermining detection efforts. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it is reported Europe had witnessed 145 incidents of sabotage up until the end of 2025, with high-profile brands and symbolic sites frequently the targets. Drone incursions have disrupted European airports and undersea cables have been damaged in the Baltic and Red Seas. 

'Gray zone' activities carried out by Iran-sponsored perpetrators are expected to increase in the wake of the US / Iran conflict, including in the cyber space, where exposures are intensifying, particularly for businesses perceived to be supporters of the US. 

Across the world, deteriorating social cohesion is fueling civil unrest, with protests triggered by economic, political, and social grievances. While hardship drives much of this trend, Allianz analysis shows unrest is not confined to fragile states – resilient economies such as France and Germany have experienced some of the most frequent protests.

SRCC-driven disruption is no longer an emerging-market footnote but a scenario requiring stress-testing across the full operational footprint, including high-income countries.

Cost-of-living pressures are fueling protests globally, with citizens demanding better governance and economic reforms. Fears of autocracy and civil liberties infringements have been another driver, leading in some cases to violent clashes with authorities. Many protest movements have been driven by Generation Z, while social media enables rapid mobilization and amplifies disinformation, polarization, and extremist ideologies.

Social resilience could be further tested by energy price shocks stemming from the US / Iran conflict, with Europe and emerging markets facing the greatest risks.

For businesses, declining social resilience creates operational risks including strikes, road blockades, demonstrations, and localized violence, all of which can disrupt logistics and cause business interruption.

Terrorism declined globally in 2025, but surged in the West, fueled by polarization, antisemitism, Islamophobia, and far-right activities. The war in Iran has intensified terror risks, with Iran-linked groups operating through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), sleeper cells, and proxies. The impact of actions by Israel and the US in Iran and Gaza could further fuel radicalization, potentially translating into violence, while extremist groups in sub-Saharan Africa continue to exploit security vacuums. 

Western businesses perceived as aligned with the US or Israel are potential targets for sleeper cells, which are increasingly using advanced technology to operate and evade detection. 

Youth radicalization is accelerating through algorithmic amplification on digital platforms and the exploitation of developmental vulnerabilities. In 2025, children and adolescents accounted for 42% of terror-related investigations in Europe and North America. Recruiters use social media platforms to establish social bonds with vulnerable users. In the West, over 90% of terror attacks since 2015 have been carried out by lone wolves.

Government efforts to counter terrorism may be hindered by global upheaval and domestic economic stress, with countries under fiscal strain finding their security resources stretched thin. This convergence of crises compels policymakers to allocate limited resources to competing priorities, undermining national resilience to global risks, including terrorism. 

The US / Iran conflict is likely to have a significant impact on risk mitigation moving forward. According to the Allianz Risk Barometer, prior to the conflict just over a third (35%) of companies were already exploring nearshoring and evaluating domestic manufacturing options, 32% were looking to improve inventory management, including storing inventory in Free Trade zones, and almost half (49%) were looking at renegotiating and diversifying supply chains, as strategies to adapt to shifting geopolitical risks. Such trends will likely be accelerated by the conflict. Meanwhile, demand for political violence insurance continues to grow.