Article | January 2026
Allianz Risk Barometer 2026 -
Global risk #8: Macroeconomic developments (14%)
Macroeconomic developments drops to #8 year-on-year. Resilience remains the headline, but the deeper story is one of shifting growth engines and rising complexity.
This article is part of the overview of the most important business risks in 2026, according to the Allianz Risk Barometer 2026.
A world in transition
As we enter 2026, the most striking feature of the global economy is its resilience. Despite the profound geopolitical shifts of 2025 – triggered by the introduction of “America First” policies in the form of sweeping tariffs, withdrawals from multilateral frameworks, and the weakening of traditional alliances – the global economy performed better than anticipated. Businesses proved adept at anticipating and adapting to tariff shocks, and the world avoided a full-scale trade war. This resilience may help explain why many businesses once again view macroeconomic developments as a comparatively lower risk in 2026. According to the Allianz Risk Barometer, macroeconomic concerns slipped one spot to #8.
Allianz Research expects the global economy to maintain a cruising speed of 2.9% in 2026, consistent with the pace of the past three years. However, this continuity in headline growth masks a world in transition. The post-World War II rules-based international order gave way in 2025 to a more fragmented, multipolar landscape. In 2026, the dust will begin to settle and the contours of this “new normal” – and its implications for the global economy – will become clearer.
Overview
Macroeconomic developments (e.g., inflation, deflation, monetary policies, austerity programs)
Ranking history:
- 2026: rank 8
- 2025: rank 7
- 2024: rank 5
- 2023: rank 3
- 2022: rank 10
- 2021: rank 8
Beneath steady global growth, the sources of momentum are already shifting: US economic growth will accelerate to 2.5% as trade uncertainty eases, household incomes receive support from tax cuts, and investment broadens beyond artificial intelligence (AI)-linked activity. In Europe the implementation of the German stimulus package is expected to deliver much-needed momentum. Not only will it help lift Europe’s largest economy out of multi-year stagnation but in addition it should cushion a broader eurozone slowdown – with growth expected to slow to 1.1% – after an exceptionally strong prior year. Emerging markets, expanding 4.1%, remain the world’s anchor of growth, even as China decelerates to 4.7% with waning fiscal stimulus tailwinds. India will power ahead with 6.5% growth, likely surpassing Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2026.
This realignment unfolds against a backdrop of elevated uncertainty. Key risks include potential shifts in US policy – from Federal Reserve leadership changes to tariff fluctuations and mid-term election outcomes – alongside intensifying geopolitical tensions, ranging from an escalation in Ukraine including a NATO-Russia involvement to a breakdown of the US-China trade truce, and financial risks including a possible AI-related equity market correction and turbulence in private credit markets.
As Allianz Chief Economist, Ludovic Subran emphasizes: “In 2026, resilience remains the headline, but the deeper story is one of shifting growth engines and rising complexity. Against a backdrop of heightened policy and geopolitical uncertainty, global momentum will increasingly be shaped by new powerful structural forces – from trade and migration constraints to the rapid acceleration of AI and a comeback of industrial policy – intersecting with familiar pressures such as elevated debt levels and stretched market valuations.
“The message for businesses is clear: even as the global economy shows impressive resilience, the operating environment is becoming more volatile, more fragmented, and more strategically contested. Companies that anticipate these shifts and adapt early will be best positioned to navigate risks and seize emerging opportunities.”
Photo: Shutterstock
Insolvency outlook
According to Allianz Trade, 2026 will mark a fifth consecutive rise in global business insolvencies.
This year, Allianz Trade expects corporates’ resilience to be put to the test by a batch of critical vulnerabilities. First, a prolonged weakness of economic growth, with the pace in the eurozone expected to remain below the threshold needed to stabilize insolvencies. Second, compared to the past decade of monetary abundance, the tight (re)financing conditions, with persistently high interest rates and limited credit supply straining debt-heavy and capital-intensive businesses, especially SMEs. Third, the combination of chaotic international political, climate, and trade tensions, pushing the redeployment of supply chains.
And fourth, the changes in the competitive landscape, with the surge in business creations and some sector-specific weaknesses, with vulnerabilities most acute in construction and automotive due to high interest rates, technological disruption and increased competition.
Global business insolvencies will reach a new height
Additionally, as mitigation strategies wear thin and secondary effects kick in, the trade war’s effects could soon weigh on companies’ outlooks. Risks of domino effects, through rising number of large insolvencies, are increasing too, which results in heightened non-payment risks. All these parameters lead Allianz Trade to expect global business insolvencies to grow by +3% in 2026 (after +6% in 2025).
This rise would be driven primarily by North America (+4%) and Asia (+4%). Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America (+5% and +3%, respectively) are expected to experience another rise for the fourth year in a row. Western Europe would be an exception on the downside, but the regional decrease would be limited (-2%), notably compared to the past four years (+14% annually on average).
“Five consecutive years of global insolvency increases is unprecedented since the financial crisis. This outlook is driven by a few key countries, primarily the US (+5%), China (+7%), and Germany (+1%), which account for a major portion of our global insolvency index. Yet, in the rest of the world, we anticipate a downward trend reversal that will remain moderate and still synonymous with a high number of insolvencies, with two out of three countries showing noticeably more bankruptcies than before the pandemic,” explains Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for Insolvency Research at Allianz Trade.
Tech and AI boom could fuel further insolvencies
In recent years, business creation has accelerated, particularly in Europe, where new registrations were 9% higher in 2021 to 2024 compared to 2016 to 2019, and in the US where business applications are 36% higher. This proliferation of new businesses increases insolvency risks through multiple mechanisms.
“The risks associated with the surge in business creations, fueled by the digital transition and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), are twofold. First, there’s the acceleration of Schumpeter’s ‘creative destruction’ (where innovation destroys old industries and technologies while simultaneously creating new, more efficient ones). Second, the end of the AI-induced boom, as we estimate that a shock similar to the dotcom bubble could lead to an extra +4,500 insolvent companies in the US, +4,000 in Germany, +1,000 in France and +1,100 in the UK,” concludes Lemerle.
Source: Allianz Trade
Our experts
Ludovic Subran
Allianz Chief Economist
Allianz Group
Maxime Lemerle
Lead Analyst for Insolvency Research
Allianz Trade
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